Aegis Maritime Terrorism Report - June 2004
The maritime industry faces a new threat. Piracy is growing at 20% per annum, thriving on a combination of vulnerable, undermanned ships carrying both dangerous and valuable cargoes sailing in unpoliced waters. However, the threat is not from traditional commercial pirates, but from a new breed of maritime terrorist, whose skills evolve from a conventional piracy base, but whose aims and goals are more sinister, and whose potential to wreak havoc with the global supply chain is still largely unrecognised. The ISPS code, coming into force on 1st July 2004, as well as CSI and CTPAT, all help raise awareness of the security issue, but cannot hope to solve this fundamental problem in their own right.
The importance of the growth rate in piracy lies not in the quantity, but in the quality of the attacks. There are increasing signs that piracy is becoming more organised, more intensive, more ambitious and better connected. Shipping is in the process of upgrading security awareness through ISPS and other efforts, but from a security perspective, the maritime world is a significant challenge. High value cargoes sail the world with minimal protection. There is a long culture which tolerates convenience at the expense of strict legality. Ownership structures exist to diffuse responsibility and risk. Polyglot seafarers with uncertain personal IDs - often drawn from countries plagued with Islamist radical violence - crew vessels sailing under flags of convenience. The volatility of insurance premiums has created a culture of under- or non-reporting of incidents. Regulation is blunted by a lowest-common-denominator approach. The narrow margins of shipping are used as an excuse to avoid correcting these problems and little investment is made in equipment or training. At the same time most of the worlds trade moves through a number of crucial chokepoints where decisive action could restrict or even block traffic. If one factors in the worlds reliance on Just-In-Time logistics systems and the volatility of markets, and the shipping industry is not only full of easy targets it is full of strategically important targets. The maritime world has yet to wake up to the full implications of this threat. The same cannot necessarily be said of Al-Qaida.
Tracing the evolution in terrorist thinking from the Limburg in October 2002 to the off-shore attacks near Basra in April 2004, analysed against the backdrop of changing trends in piracy, Aegis looks in depth at the extent that anti-Western Islamist terrorist groups are aware of the vulnerability of the global economy to strategic disruption in maritime trade. While neither high-profile nor particularly newsworthy, maritime terrorism represents a genuine threat to global economic stability. This may not be immediately evident. In its short history maritime terrorism has had little impact beyond its immediate target or geographical area. But the terrorist threat is a function of the terrorists will, the terrorists capability, and the targets perceived importance. In the maritime sphere, Al-Qaida has transformed all three. While most groups with a maritime capability (the Tamil Tigers, Abu Sayyaf Group) have thought only to achieve limited, local objectives from their attacks, Al-Qaida has a global reach, an interest in maritime targets, a readiness to use absolute methods, and an understanding of the levers of the world economy. Aegiss report lays out how this could play out.
This report offers a detailed analysis of the existing maritime terrorist threat; to show who poses that threat; identifies trends pointing to how that threat is likely to develop; and emphasises the economic impact of those likely changes. It highlights vulnerabilities and shows how, if ignored, they risk rapidly becoming threats. Drawing on existing trends, past events, and an understanding of the Islamist terrorist mindset, Aegis pulls together the different strands to create a coherent, balanced picture of the maritime terrorist threat. Aegis believes that the maritime, international political and security worlds are to varying degrees complacent about this threat. This report should help to dispel any unjustified complacency, while keeping the threat in perspective.
The Maritime Terrorism Report is available for £850 plus VAT for UK purchasers, or $1,550. Email: info@aegisdef.com for more information, or please complete the order form at the bottom of this webpage and fax it to +44 20 7493 3979 or email it to the same address.
Contents
PAGE
I WHY THE MARITIME TERRORIST THREAT IS REAL 4
A. Introduction
B. The History of Maritime Terrorism
C. THE THREAT
D. THE NATURE OF TERRORISM
II MARITIME TERRORISM 12
A. Terrorist groups with a maritime capability
ESO (External Security Organisation) Hezballahs military wing, Lebanon
LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam), Sri Lanka
ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group), Philippines
JI (Jemaah Islamiyah), SE Asia
NPA (New Peoples Army), Philippines
Palestinian groups (Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade/HAMAS/Palestinian Islamic Jihad)
Indonesian jihadi groups
GAM (The Free Aceh Movement) Indonesia
B. Al-Qaida and the Maritime World
The Nature of AQ
AQs Maritime Assets: Suicide boats
AQs Maritime Attempts
AQ, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and the Maritime World
The AQ Maritime Threat
C. Economic Impact of MARITIME Terrorism
D. THE EVOLVING MARITIME TERRORIST THREAT
Why is the maritime sector at threat?
The Iconic/Economic Agenda; Tankers and Cruise Ships
The LNG Threat
Tactical Tools; Small Arms, Fast Boats and Divers
The Maritime Spectacular
III. THE NEW INTERFACE BETWEEN PIRACY AND TERRORISM 62
A. Piracy, Security and the Terrorist Threat
B. Piracy and Terrorism The Crossover
C. Piracy and Terrorism the Context
Bursts of activity
Multi-vessel attacks
Multi-vessel Attacks, with Mother Ship
Officials becoming involved in the cycle of Piracy
Targeting of Tugs
Targeting of Tanker Vessels
Political Violence and Piracy
The Merger with Terrorism
IV. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 88
APPENDIX: Maritime initiatives to combat the threat of terrorism 89
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